While last year was the summer of threequels and a few years earlier was the summer of remakes, this year has a little bit of everything – and I'm liking it. No, the upcoming month of May won't have third editions of Spider-Man, Shrek, and Pirates of the Caribbean – and that has box office forecasters nervous – but it will have Iron Man, Prince Caspian, and Speed Racer, all of which look cool in their own ways, and even unique. Sure, they're all based on pre-existing properties – you can't release a summer movie unless it is – but Iron Man's not that well known, and it looks like it has a great director in Jon Favreau. Meanwhile, Speed Racer looks like a wildly re-imagined, brilliantly visual adaptation of the old cartoon show.
Yet all is not roses. Amidst all the cool stuff there are bound to be a few failures – there's gotta be The Invasion for every Knocked Up. So without further ado, what follows are my predictions for the biggest disappointments of the summer. Read it again in three months to find out how wrong I am.
5. Sex and the City: The Movie
I may be crazy, but since when does a movie adaptation of a show on a boutique cable network become a blockbuster? And not to sound like an old-fashioned studio executive, but they're all women in their forties, which usually doesn't scream "big summer movie." The target audience will surely line up opening day, but after that expect steep drops and, once it's not in theaters anymore, lots of boyfriends high-fiving each other about how they dodged a bullet.
The Hulk as a comic book property = license to print money. The Hulk as a movie franchise = not so much. Ang Lee's 2003 version got mixed reviews, but most of the fanboy crowd rejected it and it limped to around $130 million. They decided to just do a complete do-over, hiring Edward Norton to star and re-write the script. That was a great move, but since then it's been getting bad press over a blown-out-of-proportion dispute between Norton and Marvel, plus the same old "The Hulk doesn't look good enough in the trailer" complaints that are so five years ago. Plus, it's currently opening against The Happening, which has a good chance to become M. Night Shyamalan's comeback movie.
3. Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D
I haven't brought myself to watch the previews yet, but all I've been hearing is bad things. Add in the problem of Brendan Fraser not starring in a blockbuster since 2001's The Mummy Returns and you've got major problems. That was seven years ago. Hm, actually, that doesn't bode well for The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor either, but that one might succeed once the publicity train gets rolling. This one won't.
2. Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Hey, I've got a great idea: remember that weirdo superhero movie we took a chance on in Spring 2004 and it was sorta-kinda a success but not really since it made less than $60 million? The director of it just made this awesome foreign-language, R-rated fairy tale that was actually a success by foreign-language, R-rated fairy tale standards! So let's let him do a sequel to the weirdo superhero movie, only inexplicably, this time position it as a big summer movie and hope no one will know the difference!
1. Meet Dave
The most terrible-looking movie since Norbit, directed by the guy who directed Norbit. That's all I really have to say, but I'll go on: did the studio execs forget The Adventures of Pluto Nash? Why on Earth would you put Eddie Murphy in another stupid-sounding, stupid-looking, stupid-feeling sci-fi comedy? Wait, you say – Norbit made a lot of money! You're right – it made $90 million and was a big hit with African-American audiences in particular. But whoops, this one has a predominantly white cast, which muddles the target demographic, and thanks to the special effects, the budget is a reported $100 million versus Norbit's $60. Whoever greenlit this at 20th Century Fox shouldn't just be ashamed of themselves, they should lose their jobs.
Michael Dance
StrandedinManhattan.com
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